It’s September, the laptops are back open, and relocation isn’t happening in a vacuum—it’s happening inside two very different housing markets. Relocation is only as smooth as the market allows—and right now, it’s anything but smooth. (No Greek chorus here, just the rates and the math.)
Canada: The market has stalled
Toronto and Vancouver have been expensive for years; that part of the story hasn’t changed. What’s new is the behaviour: buyers are cautious (or sitting out), and sellers don’t want to discount. That standoff gums up relocations. National listings sat ~10% higher year-over-year at the end of July—roughly in line with long-term norms—which doesn’t feel “overheated” so much as stuck. CREA Statistics
We’ve seen it up close: an All Points relocation was cancelled after 90 days of unsuccessful marketing. That’s not just disappointing for the employee; it’s wasted corporate time, budget, and momentum.
Affordability has improved a touch versus last year, but it’s still strained (RBC’s measure eased to ~55% of income in Q1 2025 from ~61% a year earlier). Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada estimates ~60% of renewing borrowers in 2025–26 will see payment increases—another nudge toward buyer caution and longer sell cycles. Mortgage Rates CanadaBank of Canada
Watch your temporary accommodation
If you offer defined-benefit temp-accom, track exception extensions. If they’re creeping up, ask why. Often it’s because homes aren’t selling. That’s the signal to inject Home Marketing Assistance with real teeth (details below).
United States: A different beast
Three structural realities matter:
- No mortgage portability. Unlike Canada, the U.S. doesn’t let most borrowers take their old rate to a new house. Homeowners with 3% loans are staring at new loans in the mid-6s—even after recent dips—and opting to stay put. Freddie Mac
- The 30-year fixed locks people in. It’s great when rates fall; it’s glue when they rise. The share of owners with sub-6% mortgages remains enormous (86% as of late 2024), feeding the lock-in. Redfin
- Lock-in is now quantified. FHFA research finds that for every 1-point gap between today’s market rate and a homeowner’s existing rate, the probability of selling drops ~18%—a direct hit to mobility. Existing-home sales remain subdued near a 4.0M pace even with a recent uptick. FHFA.govNational Association of REALTORS®
Net effect: U.S. relocation faces more outright refusals unless the employer helps bridge the housing shock.
Special note for Canadians moving to the U.S.
From Vancouver/Toronto, some employees will still buy. From Winnipeg, Halifax, etc., many will rent first—concerned about rates, schools, and (frankly) U.S. politics. Extend home-purchase benefits to 18 months so a 12-month rental doesn’t effectively zero out their support window.
The prescription (before we conclude)
Here’s the practical middle path that protects budgets and keeps policies fair:
- If you cover home-sale closing costs (Canada):
Add Home Marketing Assistance with enforcement:- Listing-price discipline: cap list price at 110% of the average of two BMAs, with one independent of the transferee.
- Accountable marketing cadence: weekly activity reporting; authority to change realtors if velocity is poor at day 30–45; pre-agreed price-reduction schedule if showings/offers miss thresholds.
(Parenthetical aside for the real-estate gods: “list high and ‘see what happens’” is not a 2025 strategy.)
- If you don’t cover closing costs:
Expect more refusals. Consider modest, capped incentives that don’t blow up the budget but acknowledge the reality:- A flat, one-time home-sale incentive (e.g., $5k–$10k) upon closing; or
- A small purchase incentive (capped).
These are cheaper than losing the candidate (or running your policy by exception).
- If temp-accom exceptions are rising:
Diagnose whether unsold homes are the culprit. If yes, mandate the Home Marketing Assistance package above (with the 110% list cap + two BMAs). This reduces stay length variance and keeps costs predictable. - For U.S. moves (domestic or inbound Canadians):
Recognize the lock-in. Where home purchase is essential, weigh targeted buy-side help (closing-cost credit or limited points) tied to tenure. Where it isn’t, endorse rent-first and extend purchase benefits to 18 months.
(A quick word about buydown points for Canadian readers: in the U.S., buyers can reduce their mortgage interest rate at purchase by paying “points.” One point = 1% of the home’s value, which lowers the rate by roughly 1%. So, on a $500,000 home, paying $5,000 at closing can drop the rate from 6% to 5%. It doesn’t restore the golden 3% loans, but it shows goodwill, signals employer support, and can meaningfully reduce monthly payments. Not cheap—but cheaper than losing the candidate.)
Conclusion: Steer before exceptions steer you
Across Canada and the U.S., employees are increasingly immobile without structured help.
That doesn’t necessarily mean dusting off the most expensive programs; it means tightening the middle:
- Canada: Home Marketing Assistance is now table stakes if you cover closing costs.
- U.S.: Plan for stronger resistance; pair rent-first flexibility with targeted, capped support for purchases.
- Everywhere: Watch temp-accom extensions. Rising exceptions are policy feedback—act on them, or you’ll end up governing by ad hoc carve-outs.
Do this, and you’ll keep projects on schedule, budgets in hand, and your policy fair (and defensible) when the watercooler inevitably takes an interest.
Sources:
- Freddie Mac PMMS weekly: 30-yr U.S. mortgage ~6.50% (Sept 4, 2025). Freddie Mac
- FHFA working paper on lock-in: -18.1% sale probability per 1-pt rate gap. FHFA.gov
- Redfin: 86% of mortgage borrowers below 6% (2024), illustrating lock-in. Redfin
- NAR: Existing-home sales 4.01M SAAR in July; inventory 1.55M. National Association of REALTORS®
- CREA: Canadian listings ~202,500, +10.1% y/y (July). CREA Statistics
- BoC staff note: ~60% of renewers face payment increases in 2025–26. Bank of Canada
- RBC affordability trend (improving vs 2024, still tough). Mortgage Rates Canada
